A forecasting model for drug utilization and expenditure integrating a Cellular Automata model with the Budget Impact Analysis approach. Preliminary results

Results The first-in-class emerging anti-diabetic dapagliflozin was selected and critically evaluated by the IHSP about 12 months before the European Marketing Authorization (MA). Other competitors already on the market were identified. A CA model describing the diffusion process of more than 200 Italian specialties of oral antidiabetic drugs (ATC A10B), sold between 2000 and 2014 has been developed and validated. A protocol for the identification of the real-world target population in the ARNO-CINECA database was set up on the grounds of the expected indication for dapaglifozin. The estimation of the budget impact of dapagliflozin is ongoing based on the estimation of market shares, through the application of the CA model, the analysis of the identified target population and the analysis of the potential variations in related healthcare costs for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, after the introduction of dapagliflozin.